This market will resolve according to the percentage change from Anthropic's IPO price to the official closing price of its Class A common stock on its first day of trading, calculated as (closing price minus IPO price) divided by IPO price, multiplied by 100, with no rounding.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public per share of Class A common stock, as stated in the first final prospectus filed under Rule 424(b) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, even if that prospectus is filed after trading begins. The official closing price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the closing share price.
Each bracket includes its lower end and excludes its upper end, so a change exactly on a boundary resolves to the higher bracket:
- "Down more than 10%": below -10%
- "Down 10% to 0%": -10% or more, and below 0%
- "Up 0% to 10%": 0% or more, and below +10%
- "Up 10% to 20%": +10% or more, and below +20%
- "Up 20% to 30%": +20% or more, and below +30%
- "Up 30% to 50%": +30% or more, and below +50%
- "Up 50%+": +50% or more
For this market, an IPO means an underwritten, SEC-registered offering of newly issued shares of Anthropic’s Class A common stock sold to the public for cash under a registration statement on Form S-1 that the SEC has declared effective, where the shares have been approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American, the Nasdaq Stock Market, or Cboe BZX Exchange, and the offering has been priced, as shown by the first final prospectus filed with the SEC under Rule 424(b). Direct listings, mergers with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), reverse mergers, private placements, and listings outside the U.S. will not count. An IPO counts as completed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if the pricing date stated on the cover of that first final prospectus is on or before that time, even if the prospectus is filed afterwards; if Anthropic’s registration statement has been declared effective by then but the prospectus has not yet been filed, this market will wait until 11:59 PM ET on the second business day after December 31, 2027 for it. Because this market depends on trading in Anthropic’s shares, if the IPO is priced but the shares never begin trading on the listing exchange, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by then, or publicly announces a definitive agreement to be acquired by or merged into another company before completing one, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”, regardless of whether that transaction is later completed or terminated. An IPO by a holding company formed to hold all or substantially all of Anthropic’s business for the purpose of the IPO counts as Anthropic’s IPO.
Resolution will be based on the first final prospectus filed under Rule 424(b) for the IPO price and the primary exchange's official listing page for the closing price. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
