Next leader out of power before 2027?

Volume$310.6K
None before 2027
$6.9K 24h volume
48%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$2.2K 24h volume
25%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$704 24h volume
14%
Lecornu - France PM
$1.1K 24h volume
5%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$1.5K 24h volume
3%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$621 24h volume
2%
Merz - German Chancellor
$580.3 24h volume
1%
Trump - USA President
$534.5 24h volume
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$502.9 24h volume
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$831.9 24h volume
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$495.2 24h volume
1%
Macron - France President
$532.8 24h volume
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$375.2 24h volume
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$527.1 24h volume
1%
Putin - Russia President
$375.2 24h volume
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$504.2 24h volume
1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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